Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 1031.989801 1182.410170 1354.910459 1569.117212 1830.425592 2142.038105 2.546641e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 832.020601 1022.972774 1264.149095 1597.748303 2058.207237 2688.848616 3.650762e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 747.245336 957.815244 1239.702166 1656.959030 2281.671623 3223.607809 4.842555e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 672.079267 890.868306 1198.025338 1679.385325 2452.958220 3725.678025 6.178212e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 606.100053 824.325114 1142.192220 1663.412280 2550.911249 4122.984405 7.476720e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 564.565717 786.707699 1121.865008 1696.229698 2732.428439 4713.481252 9.432533e+03
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 510.822803 724.071725 1053.937333 1637.522699 2736.236335 4962.256883 1.075064e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 467.625629 673.008881 997.903877 1589.607203 2748.552943 5229.728123 1.226571e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 429.582238 626.366105 943.721445 1536.495817 2738.975321 5445.417548 1.377312e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 417.956196 620.809393 957.113085 1608.773625 3001.120077 6382.708012 1.823497e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 402.431438 607.211126 954.812382 1650.168501 3205.821039 7256.563881 2.336365e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 386.315351 591.088015 946.092533 1677.086468 3383.568455 8131.987135 2.957471e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 362.822824 561.559228 912.174200 1651.834178 3442.357883 8722.950303 3.554680e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 348.863480 547.670339 906.108423 1685.668074 3662.548747 9957.452531 4.767694e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 339.619102 541.131443 912.852050 1748.053235 3976.225474 11714.072747 6.848746e+04
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 326.862571 527.140701 903.575586 1772.559250 4192.737823 13262.749141 9.406159e+04
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 310.971092 506.129600 878.218916 1755.254710 4281.540700 14349.622124 1.206049e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 301.509000 496.406773 874.754983 1790.550312 4546.256019 16470.184279 1.777323e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 283.805215 469.850993 834.171313 1727.499623 4474.256449 16866.307825 2.090194e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 268.533893 447.063443 799.764618 1676.099867 4431.198126 17417.757914 2.519846e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 253.933374 424.760201 764.777428 1619.157721 4357.079422 17767.315041 2.969669e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 251.434014 425.840389 779.904061 1696.657026 4790.424986 21656.561397 5.711524e+05
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 246.324744 421.399437 782.569071 1741.077425 5119.417943 25351.604325 1.084044e+06